David W. Moore — Providing an independent, non-partisan critique of media polls — to help understand what they really mean.
Monday, September 21, 2009
A recent series of polls brings to mind a bobblehead doll, whose head wags from side to side and from front to back in a random fashion. That disconnected movement seems to be a visual representation of what the polls have been saying about the general public and its views of President Obama’s efforts to reform the health care system. (read more…) »
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Sunday, September 28, 2008
Three polls, all at the same time, give three wildly contradictory pictures of the American public. Their conclusions can’t all be right.
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Tuesday, September 9, 2008
During the month of August, I posted numerous articles on other websites, and in the process let my own site languish. Here is a list of other blogs I have posted, in case you are interested:
August 29: An Op Ed on the website of U.S. News and World Report,August 29 Pollsters’ Schizophrenia and the ‘Convention Bounce’
August 26: On HuffingtonPost, I criticized Andrew Kohut’s conclusion in a New York Times article, which claimed there was “Obama fatigue”: “Obama Fatigue” is a Pew Construct
On Pollster.com (to see all my posts on this website, go here; to see an individual post, click on title below), I addressed the following issues:
August 29 – Gallup Daily — The Worst Thing in Ten Years?
August 28 – The Myth of “Obama Fatigue”
August 20 – The “Loopy” Zogby Polls
August 19 – The Accuracy of Likely Voter Models
August 5 – Why Should Voters “Cringe” at the Undecided Vote?
July 25 – A Different Approach to Measuring Vote Choice (and Lack of Choice)
On the Washington Monthly website, I blogged every day for one week. Here are the posts:
August 15 Predicting the Electoral Vote
August 14 The Uncertain Electorate
August 13 The Public and “Gitmo”
August 12 The Myth of War Support
August 11 Drilling for Oil
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Thursday, August 7, 2008
At the end of last month, I posted an article on HuffingtonPost that examines congressional approval and suggests that people should not be surprised when Congress gets a lower approval rating than the president. In the 35-year history of Gallup polls, that has always occurred – except for the very first time, when the House was holding impeachment hearings on President Richard Nixon. So, what does “Congressional approval” indicate? See here.
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Monday, July 21, 2008
My critique of the New York Times article, which reported the results of the latest NYT/CBS News poll, is now posted on The Huffington Post, where I will contribute commentary from time to time.
For other commentary on the issue of the Times article, see Mark Blumenthal’s report here.
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